WC Qualifying 3/26 - Europe

ERockMoney · Mar 26, 2013

36-47, +2.025, ROI: +3.2%

1.0 Ireland +138
1.0 IRL/AUS Under 2, 2.5 -115
1.0 MON/ENG Under 2, 2.5 +100
1.0 AZB/POR Over 2.5 -114
1.0 HOL/ROM Over 2.5 -122
1.0 Holland -1.5 +108
1.0 Serbia -1 +110
1.0 Hungary +0.5, +1 -104
1.0 N Ireland PK, +0.5 -112

I'll have some thoughts on these matches up shortly.

GL to all.

ERockMoney · Mar 26, 2013

Group F: Azerbaijan v Portugal (Over 2.5 -114)

Portugal currently sit in third in group F, tied with Israel and falling further and further behind the Russians for the top spot and automatic qualification. Portugal have been scoring nearly two goals per game (1.875) of late and allowing over 1.5 goals (1.57).

The Portuguese can score on anyone, but have massive holes in the back line. I think Portugal could get the over themselves, but also given offensively challenged Azerbaijan a reasonable chance to net one at home today.

Group D: Turkey v Hungary +0.5, +1 -104

The Turkish national team is off to a dreadful start with two wins and three losses after five matches. They have their backs against the wall and are long shot to even finish second in the group. I am a bit concerned with the do or die situation Turkey is in, but this side simply isn’t as strong as it once was.

Hungary are 3-1-1 along with Romania, both four points clear of Turkey for second/third. Holland has likely already wrapped the group up at 5-0-0. Hungary has already walloped the Turkish side in Hungary 3-1 while Romania holds a 1-0 win in Turkey. It’s going to be an uphill battle for Turkey and I don’t think they have the class for it.

Hungary would be happy to escape with a draw, but may push for the maximum points having just drawn at home versus Romania and knowing Romania already picked up the maximum in Turkey.

ERockMoney · Mar 26, 2013

Group A: Serbia -1, +110 v. Scotland

Serbia are off an emotional weekend loss at Croatia, but this team is young enough to where I don’t expect any form of hangover in this match. Serbia actually picked up their play in Zagreb after going down and played better than I expected.

Scotland is an absolute mess right now and could get steamrolled in this one. I have enough concerns with the Serbs to stick to the -1 versus laying a bigger number for a better payout. At 1-1-3 and nine points off the pace set by Belgium and Croatia, Serbia has virtually no chance to qualify for the World Cup and Scotland has even less of a chance than that.

Group H: Montenegro v. England (Under 2, 2.5 +100)

This is a massive match as Montenegro can place a ton of pressure on England with a win today. England will certainly want to avoid the playoffs which may be tougher than we have seen in past qualification campaigns. The playoffs could include sides such as, England, Spain, Portugal, Croatia, Sweden and tough second tier sides like Greece, Bulgaria/Denmark/Czechs, Hungary/Romania, etc.

Montenegro has played England very tough and has a knack for playing a tight defensive game with limited goal scoring opportunities. Montenegro are fresh off four consecutive clean sheets and will look to lock the English down in a tight, defensive battle.

ERockMoney · Mar 26, 2013

Group C: Ireland +138 v. Austria (Under 2, 2.5 -115)

The Irish once seemed destined to have no chance of qualification after a 6-1 home drubbing to Germany, but have fought back to have some hope, however unlikely. Ireland’s weekend draw in Sweden kept the side alive with a massive home match versus the Austrians today and an upcoming home match with Sweden in September. The Irish, close the qualifying campaign with an October trip to Germany, who may play a second tier side (still may be enough to beat Ireland) and a home match with Kazakhstan.

Six points from the home matches with Austria and Sweden may make this groups battle for second place rather interesting. I’m not sure Ireland can reach this lofty goal, but I think they can claim the maximum points in the former. Expect Ireland to play their typical defensive game and look to escape with a 1-0 type of victory in what will likely be an ugly match.

Group D: Holland -1.5, +108 v. Romania (Over 2.5 -122)

The Dutch have virtually already wrapped up the group with a perfect 5-0-0 and 16/2 GF/GA. At home the Netherlands are netting 2.67 GPG in matches versus Turkey, Andorra and Estonia while claiming two 4-1 away drubbings versus Hungary and Romania.

I expect Romania to play a tight, conservative match early, but once they concede I think we could see this easily hit three-four total goals. I’m thinking we see a 3-1, 3-0 type of game here and expect the Dutch to cover the goal and half and cleat the 2.5 total.

Group F: N Ireland PK, +0.5 -112 v. Israel

Northern Ireland typically play tight games at home, regardless of their opposition. They play up or down to opponents and have taken some nice scalps from Europe’s elite at home over the years.

Israel are in a dogfight with Portugal for third in the group and are fresh of a devastating home draw versus the Portuguese, in a match they led 3-1 after 70 minutes and 3-2 headed into injury time. The late equalizer for Coentrao may have saved Portugal’s qualifying dreams. I’m looking for a bit of a let down here and think N Ireland has an excellent chance to win the match or at a minimum secure the draw.